Grading The First Quarterback Selected In The Last 10 Drafts.
With the 2021 draft right around the corner, I wanted to revisit the last decade of draft classes to see how the first quarterbacks selected faired in the NFL.
The grades for each of these selections are based on a couple of things. I’m mainly focusing on how good the player has been throughout their career and how good the other quarterbacks from that draft have been.
For example, Mitchell Trubisky’s pick will get a lower grade than EJ Manuel’s, even though Mitchell Trubisky is a better player. Trubisky’s pick is considered worse because he was taken ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson.
I’m also taking into account how early each selection occurred, so the players selected first overall will be graded more harshly than players drafted later.
Lastly, I’m grading these picks based on what we know right now. That means the grades for the younger players on this list are more likely to change in the future.
2011: Cam Newton (1st overall)
Grade: A-
Other QBs selected in the first round: Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder
With three Pro Bowls and an MVP to his name, Newton is a bright light in what was an otherwise underwhelming class. Even though he hasn’t come close to replicating his 2015 success, Newton has put together a very respectable career.
2012: Andrew Luck (1st overall)
Grade: B+
Other QBs selected in the first round: Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden
Although injuries derailed what could’ve been a legendary career, Luck still managed to make four Pro Bowls in his six years as a starter and led the league in touchdowns in 2014. He didn’t stick around for as long as Colts fans hoped, but he still had a successful career.
2013: EJ Manuel (16th overall)
Grade: D
Other QBs selected in the first round: none
Since this was such a weak quarterback class, the Bills won’t get as much heat for taking Manuel in the first round. Even with that in mind, a first-round pick who was benched after his rookie season is undoubtedly a miss.
2014: Blake Bortles (3rd overall)
Grade: D+
Other QBs selected in the first round: Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater
There was a brief time where it looked like Blake Bortles experiment could work out in Jacksonville. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to overcome his accuracy problems and will likely be a backup for the rest of his career.
2015: Jameis Winston (1st overall)
Grade: C-
Other QBs selected in the first round: Marcus Mariota
I’m cautiously optimistic that Jameis could turn his career around in New Orleans. But until that actually happens, it’s impossible to say he was worth the top selection. The arm talent is undeniable, but his inability to protect the football has limited him from coming close to reaching his potential.
2016: Jared Goff (1st overall)
Grade: C
Other QBs selected in the first round: Carson Wentz, Paxton Lynch
I’ve always believed that Jared Goff was just the beneficiary of Sean McVay’s offensive prowess. Still, it’s hard to not give any credit to give him any credit for making two Pro Bowls by age 26. Goff’s time in Detroit will be very telling, and we will probably have a better idea of who he is as a quarterback in the next couple of years.
2017: Mitchell Trubisky (2nd overall)
Grade: F
Other QBs selected in the first round: Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson
Trubisky had the misfortune of being in the same draft class as Mahomes and Watson. This pick probably isn’t as criticized in another draft class. Regardless, any quarterback taken second overall that is a backup four years later is a really bad miss.
2018: Baker Mayfield (1st overall)
Grade: B
Other QBs selected in the first round: Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, Lamar Jackson
He wouldn’t go first in a redraft, but Baker has still been a worthy selection for the Browns. He is at the center of a resurgent franchise that should be in playoff contention for the foreseeable future.
2019: Kyler Murray (1st overall)
Grade: B
Other QBs selected in the first round: Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins
This was a pretty weak QB class, so it’s hard to criticize this selection. There are still some unknowns to what Murray’s ceiling truly is, but he’s already one of the best dual-threat QBs we’ve ever seen and should be a starter for the next decade or so.
2020: Joe Burrow (1st overall)
Grade: B+
Other QBs selected in the first round: Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love
Even if Justin Herbert goes on to have a better career, Burrow’s rookie season leads me to believe he has a bright future ahead of him. As long as the Bengals can give him more protection, there isn’t much holding him back.
